Taiwan braces for US election as China tensions rise

TAIPEI -- Taiwan is bracing for the results of the U.S. election, with some officials worried about what a new Trump administration could mean given the former president’s isolationist views.

On the presidential trail, Taiwan has not been a major campaign question, though a key foreign policy topic has centered on how to take on China.

The concerns about former President Trump center on his calls for Taiwan to pay for any defense from the U.S., and his resistance to defending Ukraine against Russia. Taiwan is worried about a potential Chinese invasion in 2027.

Taiwan says an invasion is a serious possibility, including in 2027, but whether China will stage such an attack remains unclear. The year is the date Chinese President Xi Jinping has told his forces to be read for a potential attack, but does not mean it will happen then.

Taiwan officials are stressing that there is bipartisan support for their country in Washington but remain on edge.

“We are very concerned by the election of the U.S., because the U.S. is our most important ally,” Deputy Foreign Affairs Minister Francois Chihchung Wu told The Hill in an interview. She said Taiwan is “very, very worried” about the election.

“We are certainly very, very [interested in] the result of the U.S. presidential election. But having said that, I need to say that now the support of Taiwan is becoming a general consensus,” she added.

“If Trump [were to] abandon Taiwan, I wonder how he can make America Great Again, because he would lose the support, the credibility of the U.S. in the Asian Pacific,” he said. “My feeling is that we are just worried for the uncertainty.”

A person in a high level of Taiwan’s government stressed there was bipartisan unity and Taiwan was “not that worried.”

“Bipartisan support for Taiwan is actually quite strong,“ the person said, adding, however, that China would “test the new government” and that it was crucial for Washington to continue working with Taipei to build up defenses.

Trump’s comments on Taiwan have been unusually harsh for China policy in Washington, where there is a general bipartisan consensus to be tough on Beijing and Xi, who has pledged to reunify with Taipei, by force if necessary.

In July, Trump said in an interview that Taiwan should pay for the U.S. to defend the island because they were wealthy enough through the dominance of manufacturing semiconductor chips, prompting Taiwanese officials to respond that they are paying 2.5 percent of economic output for defense. That amount of GDP is higher than many European allies in NATO.

Trump also said that Taiwan stole the U.S. ability to manufacture semiconductor chips of its own.

The comments appear to have had an effect in Beijing. When asked about a second Trump administration, China’s Taiwan Affairs Office spokesperson Zhu Fenglian said Wednesday that Taiwan “at any time” could be “discarded” because the U.S. aims to prioritize itself.

Mainland Affairs Council Deputy Minister Wen-Chieh Liang, who manages relations with China, said “Chinese power has been growing in terms of military and economics” and that while joint U.S. and Taiwanese deterrence is working, it will continue to be tested.

“Whether or not this kind of deterrence will continue to be effective, will have to depend on the determination and the strength of Taiwanese people, and, of course, the determination and the power of the U.S.,” he said.

“I believe the Chinese leaders and Xi Jinping has been assessing the determination and the power of the U.S.,” he added, and “I think the key to this is the U.S. leader shall not be considered by the Beijing government to be someone who will back down.”

Trump has also raised questions about his support for dictators and whether he would be tough on autocrats across the world, recently praising China’s Xi as a “brilliant guy” in an interview last week on the “Joe Rogan Experience” podcast.

The former president has also made favorable comments about Russian President Vladimir Putin and reportedly has called him at least seven times since leaving the White House in 2021.

I-Chung Lai, president of the influential Taiwanese foreign policy think tank the Prospect Foundation said that Taiwan takes candidate’s “comments seriously.”

“They are not entirely correct, but we will try to communicate with the [candidate] as much as possible,” he said, adding that relations remain healthy with Washington. “I'm confident about the Taiwan-U.S. [relationship] because we not only share the same value, we have very extensive trade between Taiwan and the United States.”

A second Trump administration is also threatening to upend trade in Asia, as the former president has promised to enact 60 percent tariffs on Chinese goods, which is likely to have a ripple effect in Asian markets.

Trump has also insisted that tariffs could deter Beijing from an attack despite experts cautioning that strategy would not work.

At Taiwan’s National Development Council, which focuses on economic development, however, a hike in tariffs is not a big threat, according to the government agency’s minister, Chin-Ching Liu, who said Taipei has decreased exports to China from 40 percent to 20 percent.

“Even if U.S. tariffs for Chinese merchandises spike in the future, I think it will only accelerate this supply chain shifting across the world,” she said. “If there is an increase in Chinese products from U.S. in tariffs, then the supply chain restructuring will only accelerate.

“It will, of course, have some impact on Taiwan, but I don't think it's going to be a huge impact, because so far, we have seen a great dwindling of Taiwan’s exports to China.”

Trump and Vice President Harris are in a neck-and-neck race in the key battleground states, and the world is holding its breath for how the election will shake out, with huge ramifications for U.S. foreign policy at stake.

Taiwanese officials acknowledge that the threat from China has risen since 2022, when former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) visited the island nation, setting off massive Chinese drills.

Since Taiwan’s pro-U.S. president, William Lai Ching-te, took office in May, China has repeatedly launched large-scale drills in response to what it views as escalatory rhetoric from the Taiwanese leader.

Wen-Chieh, from the Mainland Affairs Council, said Xi’s next term is up in 2027, and if he wants to extend his term again he might need progress on unification.

“We are less worried about direct use of force,” he added. “We are more concerned about ... economic coercion, and a maritime blockade around Taiwan. We are worried he will use these kind of habits to force Taiwan to give in.”

A naval blockade of Taiwan, which experts are increasingly stressing is the likely scenario, could push the U.S. and Taiwan to respond militarily, forcing the allies to take the first shots.

Until then, Taiwan and the U.S. are trying to deter China from an attack by building up defenses on the island.

American forces are also increasing strength and posture across the Indo-Pacific through allies like Australia, the Philippines and Japan.

Catherine Hsu, director general of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs Department of International Information Services, said the goal is to prevent a war, which she said is “not unavoidable.”

“Our goal is not to have that situation happen,” she said, adding that Taiwan also wants to ensure they can defend themselves. “We don't want to tell everybody that we expect [you] to come to our aid. ... We need to be able to self-defend ourselves before we can ask for any support from outside.”

But Taiwan is resolved to defend its island if it comes to it, said Norah Huang, director of international relations and research fellow at The Prospect Foundation, pointing to a research that shows 70 percent of the Taiwanese are willing to take up arms if China invades.

“Outside of this island [people] have been concerned ... there is an image that is clouding, that creates the sense that the Taiwanese are not ready to defend ourselves,” she said. “But when it comes to the willingness to defend ourselves, 70 percent is quite reassuring.”